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penpusherThough I have taken a step away from politics, at least as far as my job is concerned, the landscape of what is being seen on the current scene compels me to examine where we currently stand. Obviously, the 2000 Pound Gorilla in the room is Donald Trump.
A lot of people I know believe this Trump candidacy is going to eventually run out of gas, will shrivel up and blow away, will not survive any serious scrutiny and will vanish as an amusing sketch from a season of Saturday Night Live that wasn't very good.
I'm not of that group. In fact, I think Trump could win the nomination, and might prove to be a formidable candidate against whomever the Democrats put up.
Here's why...
Keep in mind, that the office of President is not just an intellectual choice, it's an emotional one. People vote based on their feelings, not just on the facts. That's why when you hear people parroting the phrase, "I don't want another Bush or Clinton!" what they really mean is that they don't want an "established" politician.
But established politicians do know a little something about how Washington works. To me, the biggest, most glaring error Barack Obama made when entering the White House was that he could use good common sense, a winning attitude and personality and a willingness to do the work to get the Republicans to help solve a lot of the problems the United States was dealing with in 2009 and 2010.
That's not how it works, and someone like Hillary Clinton, had she won the Democratic nomination and gone on to win the General Election in 2008, wouldn't have made that misstep and wasted that Democratic House and Senate when it was there. It also didn't serve President Obama that he rarely points out his accomplishments, or that he didn't have supporters willing to do that for him. Perception counts for a lot, and having the American people gently reminded of all those achievements would have helped. People would have been a bit more attentive about what President Obama had actually done, if he were more vocal on those matters. But you can't change someone's personality.
Which is the segue to the discussion of Donald Trump and why he could mount a serious challenge this time. Trump has a lot of things going for him, not the least of which is recognition. I doubt that he ever imagined putting his name on his buildings and/or becoming the host of a Reality TV series would be steps toward the White House, but they very much are. Having people know who you are, knowing what you stand for and how you are going to act are part and parcel to the office. Trump has those skills, in spades.
The other issue is the status quo element that many are sick of seeing from these "lifer" pols, people who have held no other job than getting elected and re-elected for years. This is why you see candidates like John Anderson, Ross Perot, even Ben Carson getting a lot of attention.
"Outsiders," like Barack Obama, are having their moment, and Trump fits that bill in a big way. Also, the perception that he is a multimillionaire or billionaire (have we seen his tax forms yet?) means that he's not going to be under the influence of lobbyists or big money donors like the Koch brothers, and people favor those that aren't "puppets," the word Trump used on "Meet the Press."
The other issue is that Trump is painting the scene that he wants you to see, and then stepping into that scene to be the knight in shining armor to fix it. His catchphrase "Let's Make America Great Again" clearly implies that America isn't great, now. This though we had a narrow escape from a Depression, climbed out of that hole and bounced back to a pretty good place.
Never mind that the reason America isn't as great as it could be is simply from corporate greed, which creates and upward spiral of cost for middle and lower class families, while the wealthiest continue to party like it's 1929.
But when you hear Donald Trump "talking tough," about what he's going to do: Clear all the illegal immigrants out, Build an impenetrable wall on the Mexican border that "The Mexicans will pay for..." When you hear him saying how he's going to bring jobs back to our shores (though he is not in favor of raising the minimum wage), and you hear him repeating that "Make America Great Again" mantra as many times as possible during interviews, people get hypnotized and start to buy into it.
Never mind that in the global community, you can't go in, guns ablazing, and demand everything you want because this is Planet United States and we know what's best. Trump has already hinted that he would send massive air strikes to Iran if that's what it took to prevent them from a nuclear device, and that he thought the deal that "Kerry and his friends" cut was "terrible."
Diplomacy is not Trump's long suit.
But many Americans don't know and don't care about diplomacy. They care about results: getting what they want, and getting it sooner rather than later, and that's the sort of candidate they see in Donald Trump. He is like Mitt Romney with a bite. He actually is Biff Tannen from "Back to the Future Part II" the one with all the power and all the money.
Plus, people don't seem to care what sort of statements he makes! As outrageous as he has been so far, he is still leading by a wide margin. And I suppose part of that is the backlash to the backlash.
See, when George W. Bush finished his term, he left America in shambles. All of his drinking and smoking buddies did well for themselves, and the people at the top definitely made out like bandits. In came Barack Obama and custodial services to clean up all that mess. And he did, despite all the calls from people like Trump to "produce your birth certificate" and the other questionable statements about his heritage and his religion. The backlash was getting President Obama.
Obama diligently and methodically went through things, piecing the country back together (Wall Street), taking care of some foreign issues (Osama bin Laden), getting health care in shape and dealing with a Congress intent on doing as little as possible so they could lay all the blame on him.
The Republican strategy worked: People bought into it, as in 2014, the Democrats lost the Senate, assuring the final two years of President Obama's administration would be gridlock'd. Really, Democrats bought into it too, by not standing by the President.
And that's where we are now, the backlash to the backlash - Donald Trump for President. The take no prisoners stance he's using makes a lot of potential voters think, the USA really should be controlling everything, and where Romney was too light and breezy to actually control anything, we know Trump gets projects done. He builds buildings, he makes money, he finishes the work and still has time for all of the other stuff he does.
Granted, we still have about fifteen months to go, and a lot of things, both on the campaign trail and on the planet can happen to change or shift the focus, but, at least for now, Donald Trump is not going away, and people should not assume otherwise.
A lot of people I know believe this Trump candidacy is going to eventually run out of gas, will shrivel up and blow away, will not survive any serious scrutiny and will vanish as an amusing sketch from a season of Saturday Night Live that wasn't very good.
I'm not of that group. In fact, I think Trump could win the nomination, and might prove to be a formidable candidate against whomever the Democrats put up.
Here's why...
Keep in mind, that the office of President is not just an intellectual choice, it's an emotional one. People vote based on their feelings, not just on the facts. That's why when you hear people parroting the phrase, "I don't want another Bush or Clinton!" what they really mean is that they don't want an "established" politician.
But established politicians do know a little something about how Washington works. To me, the biggest, most glaring error Barack Obama made when entering the White House was that he could use good common sense, a winning attitude and personality and a willingness to do the work to get the Republicans to help solve a lot of the problems the United States was dealing with in 2009 and 2010.
That's not how it works, and someone like Hillary Clinton, had she won the Democratic nomination and gone on to win the General Election in 2008, wouldn't have made that misstep and wasted that Democratic House and Senate when it was there. It also didn't serve President Obama that he rarely points out his accomplishments, or that he didn't have supporters willing to do that for him. Perception counts for a lot, and having the American people gently reminded of all those achievements would have helped. People would have been a bit more attentive about what President Obama had actually done, if he were more vocal on those matters. But you can't change someone's personality.
Which is the segue to the discussion of Donald Trump and why he could mount a serious challenge this time. Trump has a lot of things going for him, not the least of which is recognition. I doubt that he ever imagined putting his name on his buildings and/or becoming the host of a Reality TV series would be steps toward the White House, but they very much are. Having people know who you are, knowing what you stand for and how you are going to act are part and parcel to the office. Trump has those skills, in spades.
The other issue is the status quo element that many are sick of seeing from these "lifer" pols, people who have held no other job than getting elected and re-elected for years. This is why you see candidates like John Anderson, Ross Perot, even Ben Carson getting a lot of attention.
"Outsiders," like Barack Obama, are having their moment, and Trump fits that bill in a big way. Also, the perception that he is a multimillionaire or billionaire (have we seen his tax forms yet?) means that he's not going to be under the influence of lobbyists or big money donors like the Koch brothers, and people favor those that aren't "puppets," the word Trump used on "Meet the Press."
The other issue is that Trump is painting the scene that he wants you to see, and then stepping into that scene to be the knight in shining armor to fix it. His catchphrase "Let's Make America Great Again" clearly implies that America isn't great, now. This though we had a narrow escape from a Depression, climbed out of that hole and bounced back to a pretty good place.
Never mind that the reason America isn't as great as it could be is simply from corporate greed, which creates and upward spiral of cost for middle and lower class families, while the wealthiest continue to party like it's 1929.
But when you hear Donald Trump "talking tough," about what he's going to do: Clear all the illegal immigrants out, Build an impenetrable wall on the Mexican border that "The Mexicans will pay for..." When you hear him saying how he's going to bring jobs back to our shores (though he is not in favor of raising the minimum wage), and you hear him repeating that "Make America Great Again" mantra as many times as possible during interviews, people get hypnotized and start to buy into it.
Never mind that in the global community, you can't go in, guns ablazing, and demand everything you want because this is Planet United States and we know what's best. Trump has already hinted that he would send massive air strikes to Iran if that's what it took to prevent them from a nuclear device, and that he thought the deal that "Kerry and his friends" cut was "terrible."
Diplomacy is not Trump's long suit.
But many Americans don't know and don't care about diplomacy. They care about results: getting what they want, and getting it sooner rather than later, and that's the sort of candidate they see in Donald Trump. He is like Mitt Romney with a bite. He actually is Biff Tannen from "Back to the Future Part II" the one with all the power and all the money.
Plus, people don't seem to care what sort of statements he makes! As outrageous as he has been so far, he is still leading by a wide margin. And I suppose part of that is the backlash to the backlash.
See, when George W. Bush finished his term, he left America in shambles. All of his drinking and smoking buddies did well for themselves, and the people at the top definitely made out like bandits. In came Barack Obama and custodial services to clean up all that mess. And he did, despite all the calls from people like Trump to "produce your birth certificate" and the other questionable statements about his heritage and his religion. The backlash was getting President Obama.
Obama diligently and methodically went through things, piecing the country back together (Wall Street), taking care of some foreign issues (Osama bin Laden), getting health care in shape and dealing with a Congress intent on doing as little as possible so they could lay all the blame on him.
The Republican strategy worked: People bought into it, as in 2014, the Democrats lost the Senate, assuring the final two years of President Obama's administration would be gridlock'd. Really, Democrats bought into it too, by not standing by the President.
And that's where we are now, the backlash to the backlash - Donald Trump for President. The take no prisoners stance he's using makes a lot of potential voters think, the USA really should be controlling everything, and where Romney was too light and breezy to actually control anything, we know Trump gets projects done. He builds buildings, he makes money, he finishes the work and still has time for all of the other stuff he does.
Granted, we still have about fifteen months to go, and a lot of things, both on the campaign trail and on the planet can happen to change or shift the focus, but, at least for now, Donald Trump is not going away, and people should not assume otherwise.
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no subject
Date: 2015-08-18 04:00 am (UTC)Keep in mind all of those people who were just repeating all of Romney's phrases in 2012. Romney never said ANYTHING about what he was going to do, and he had a pretty great turnout. Trump is saying stuff. Stuff that people can repeat to each other at the water cooler.
You say he won't be able to answer hard questions as if it matters!
Running mates... Well, The Onion had a couple of amusing suggestions:
You absolutely want to know who I’d pick. A defeated GOP challenger who hates my guts? Another lunatic billionaire? Maybe my own son, Donald Trump Jr.? Whatever your wildest expectation is, I promise you I will surpass it.
The article is fun to read, if we were reading it from a different reality. The unfortunate thing is we aren't. But what if he runs out of steam the day after the election?