Before I explain the above headline, let me explain my credentials.
I am a person who has worked as a fundraiser for such organizations as Planned Parenthood and EMILY's List. I have also fundraised for the Democratic National Committee and participated in both of Barack Obama's presidential runs, first as a volunteer phone banker and organizer in 2008, then as a fundraiser in 2012, who personally raised over four-hundred thousand dollars for the campaign. And finally, I briefly served as part of the fundraising team for Hillary Clinton, as she became the first woman of a major party atop a presidential ticket.
While others may have more expertise than me, I believe I have a unique and accurate perspective on the 2020 election, and I want state this as clearly as I can, with no sarcasm, no humor and no doubt: donald trump will win a second term and return to the White House.
As you might guess, based on my history, I am not pleased about making this statement. But I am stating it now because I don't want another scene that occurred at the Javits Center on the evening of Tuesday November 8, 2016. The shock and the grief of that moment nearly four years ago, with all of Hillary's supporters gathered together was among the most difficult to witness and that has only extended, based on what has occurred in the ensuing administration.
Here, I will make the case to explain why trump's return to DC isn't just likely, it's inevitable, and why you shouldn't be as shocked as Secretary Clinton's team was when it happened two hundred and six weeks ago.
Nothing occurs in a vacuum. Everything turns on whatever the circumstances are. Currently, the president has seemingly beat COVID-19 in just a few days, suggesting that the medical professionals that warned Americans to stay at home, wear masks and social distance were overzealous. It also makes the Democratic Governors who issued tough restrictions for their states appear to be strangling their own economies for no reason.
Additionally, many view COVID as something no one could have done anything about, so any blame that might have been placed on trump is tempered because this wasn't created by him.
Also, there is the small matter of a new Supreme Court justice. The Senate confirmed Amy Coney Barrett, trump's latest SCOTUS pick, as he continues to pack the court with the most conservative judges he can.
Between laying the blame of the economy on state and city level Democrats, and the promise of a Supreme Court that will tighten restrictions on what some perceive as preposterous behavior by liberal thinking Americans, trump is getting a bit of a boost right now in certain circles.
Also, the fact that Stephen Breyer, Bill Clinton's second Supreme Court selection, turned 82 this past summer, means that trump, if returned to the White House, might actually get a fourth seat to fill on the Judicial side. That thought likely has conservatives on Cloud 9 justices.
But we also need to look back, both to weed through the history of what occurred and to digest the basics of how people think to completely understand why trump is about to win again.
The first thing to note is the Electoral College.
A lot of people don't quite get the intricacies of the Electoral College. And many want to dismantle it. I'm of a somewhat different mindset.
Here's how the process generally works. Every state acts as a separate entity. Every voting district in each state counts toward your total in that state. Win just one voting district more than your opponent and you win the state and all of that state's Electoral Votes. The object is to get to 270 Electoral Votes and win.
It used to be counties - or parishes in Louisiana - not "voting districts." But that's because gerrymandering, the process of redrawing the map so one side or other can win areas, has been done by Republican legislators since George W. Bush. With gerrymandering, Republicans get a major boost because they manipulate the lines so more and more areas are set to vote Red. It's an easy fix.
Prior to the 2016 election, I suggested a couple of problems with the Electoral system, putting aside the gerrymandering issue. The first was simply the numbers.
There are six states and the District of Columbia that have three Electoral Votes. Wyoming is the smallest in population - approximately 578,000 residents. Montana has nearly twice the population, at over one million residents, but the same number of electoral votes as Wyoming. That seems odd.
Then, when you compare the vote totals to the larger states, it seems even more wacky. Using Montana's three votes per million residents, not even Wyoming's population count, a state like California would receive 117 Electoral Votes, based on the more than 39 million residents in that state. Currently, California has fifty-five Electoral Votes. So the state counts aren't fair.
But there is an even bigger issue that no one wants to address.
Every state has their allotment of Electoral Votes. And those votes are cast, no matter how many (or few) people voted in the general election. If only fifty percent of the population voted, why are one hundred percent of the Electoral Votes being given? Think about it. Votes are being handed to candidates based on NOTHING. What should be happening is a percentage of the Electoral Votes are awarded, based on the total of ballots cast by the percentage of legal voting age population.
Now, suddenly, we are getting an accurate assessment of what each state thinks. And this has the added benefit of eliminating voter suppression, forever. In this case, you want everyone, including supporters of your political rival to vote, so the state's winner would get all of the Electoral Votes, not a fraction.
So, even with keeping the Electoral College, we can use some tweaks and make it accurate, based on how many people live in a particular area and more representative of what's actually happening with the so-called "popular vote."
Admittedly, though, none of that is the issue right now. The issue is sexism.
I'm the first person to admit it. We got President Barack Obama, at least in part, because of sexism. Obama had one major challenger in the 2008 Democratic primaries - Senator Hillary Clinton. And when he won the nomination, his opponent was John McCain, who was in questionable health at the time, and his running mate was former Alaska governor, Sarah Palin.
While the 2008 result was far closer than 1984, when Geraldine Ferraro ran with Walter Mondale to a landslide defeat, it wasn't close.
As I mentioned above, I have worked for the DNC, speaking to big money donors all over the country. And when I briefly was involved with Hillary's campaign, speaking exclusively to Democrats, mind you, I was taken aback by the number of people who said some variation of "I don't think we're ready for a 'woman president.'"
Reminder. 2016. Liberal minded voters. Not sure about a woman in charge. As tough as that was to hear, it clearly was worse on the conservative side. There are a number of Americans who firmly believe that women should be barred from the military. You can imagine what they think of a female Commander-in-Chief.
Flash ahead four years. Now it's not just sexism, it's racism. Senator Kamala Harris isn't just a woman a Joe Biden heartbeat from the Oval Office, she is a minority woman. And we have not gotten past either sexism or racism in this country - in fact, we haven't properly discussed those issues, even now. And if we haven't even talked about them, we are far from resolving them.
This combination of elements, a fearful population of a possible Madam President, those that are happy with (or are unaffected by) trump's statements and actions, and this almost insatiable need by Republicans not to just have their way, but to be practically punitive with Democrats, has created a nation on the brink of a new kind of civil war.
My points about changing things for future elections may be moot. That's because when trump gets his second term, suddenly, he doesn't have to answer to anybody, not even his base. He will be completely free to do anything he wants, including finding a way to stay in power beyond 2024. After all, things are so much more peaceful when the rabble rousers have nothing to promote.
But I stated that trump's re-election might be a good thing. A great thing, not a good thing. Let me briefly paint that picture.
Any doubt about the dysfunction of the United States is gone. But what to do about it is unclear. If Biden wins, we'll start to head back towards what we think of as "normalcy."
But we have outgrown that normal. The problem is many Americans still don't understand what the complaints are all about. They need trump to destroy government as it is before they finally get it.
So, when trump attempts to dismantle the Constitution, when he exerts his absolute power, when he aligns with foreign dictators and shuns our allies, promotes chaos and divisive thought and when he manipulates every advantage to circumnavigate our laws to stay beyond eight years, and when it will eventually end, and yes, despite all, it will eventually end, we, like the Original Founders, will have to create a new government from the wreckage and the carnage.
Hopefully, this time, we will consider ALL Americans as we build a new form of government, one that protects us from, not promotes, people like trump, and one that serves the people, not just those with wealth and power.
I am a person who has worked as a fundraiser for such organizations as Planned Parenthood and EMILY's List. I have also fundraised for the Democratic National Committee and participated in both of Barack Obama's presidential runs, first as a volunteer phone banker and organizer in 2008, then as a fundraiser in 2012, who personally raised over four-hundred thousand dollars for the campaign. And finally, I briefly served as part of the fundraising team for Hillary Clinton, as she became the first woman of a major party atop a presidential ticket.
While others may have more expertise than me, I believe I have a unique and accurate perspective on the 2020 election, and I want state this as clearly as I can, with no sarcasm, no humor and no doubt: donald trump will win a second term and return to the White House.
As you might guess, based on my history, I am not pleased about making this statement. But I am stating it now because I don't want another scene that occurred at the Javits Center on the evening of Tuesday November 8, 2016. The shock and the grief of that moment nearly four years ago, with all of Hillary's supporters gathered together was among the most difficult to witness and that has only extended, based on what has occurred in the ensuing administration.
Here, I will make the case to explain why trump's return to DC isn't just likely, it's inevitable, and why you shouldn't be as shocked as Secretary Clinton's team was when it happened two hundred and six weeks ago.
Nothing occurs in a vacuum. Everything turns on whatever the circumstances are. Currently, the president has seemingly beat COVID-19 in just a few days, suggesting that the medical professionals that warned Americans to stay at home, wear masks and social distance were overzealous. It also makes the Democratic Governors who issued tough restrictions for their states appear to be strangling their own economies for no reason.
Additionally, many view COVID as something no one could have done anything about, so any blame that might have been placed on trump is tempered because this wasn't created by him.
Also, there is the small matter of a new Supreme Court justice. The Senate confirmed Amy Coney Barrett, trump's latest SCOTUS pick, as he continues to pack the court with the most conservative judges he can.
Between laying the blame of the economy on state and city level Democrats, and the promise of a Supreme Court that will tighten restrictions on what some perceive as preposterous behavior by liberal thinking Americans, trump is getting a bit of a boost right now in certain circles.
Also, the fact that Stephen Breyer, Bill Clinton's second Supreme Court selection, turned 82 this past summer, means that trump, if returned to the White House, might actually get a fourth seat to fill on the Judicial side. That thought likely has conservatives on Cloud 9 justices.
But we also need to look back, both to weed through the history of what occurred and to digest the basics of how people think to completely understand why trump is about to win again.
The first thing to note is the Electoral College.
A lot of people don't quite get the intricacies of the Electoral College. And many want to dismantle it. I'm of a somewhat different mindset.
Here's how the process generally works. Every state acts as a separate entity. Every voting district in each state counts toward your total in that state. Win just one voting district more than your opponent and you win the state and all of that state's Electoral Votes. The object is to get to 270 Electoral Votes and win.
It used to be counties - or parishes in Louisiana - not "voting districts." But that's because gerrymandering, the process of redrawing the map so one side or other can win areas, has been done by Republican legislators since George W. Bush. With gerrymandering, Republicans get a major boost because they manipulate the lines so more and more areas are set to vote Red. It's an easy fix.
Prior to the 2016 election, I suggested a couple of problems with the Electoral system, putting aside the gerrymandering issue. The first was simply the numbers.
There are six states and the District of Columbia that have three Electoral Votes. Wyoming is the smallest in population - approximately 578,000 residents. Montana has nearly twice the population, at over one million residents, but the same number of electoral votes as Wyoming. That seems odd.
Then, when you compare the vote totals to the larger states, it seems even more wacky. Using Montana's three votes per million residents, not even Wyoming's population count, a state like California would receive 117 Electoral Votes, based on the more than 39 million residents in that state. Currently, California has fifty-five Electoral Votes. So the state counts aren't fair.
But there is an even bigger issue that no one wants to address.
Every state has their allotment of Electoral Votes. And those votes are cast, no matter how many (or few) people voted in the general election. If only fifty percent of the population voted, why are one hundred percent of the Electoral Votes being given? Think about it. Votes are being handed to candidates based on NOTHING. What should be happening is a percentage of the Electoral Votes are awarded, based on the total of ballots cast by the percentage of legal voting age population.
Now, suddenly, we are getting an accurate assessment of what each state thinks. And this has the added benefit of eliminating voter suppression, forever. In this case, you want everyone, including supporters of your political rival to vote, so the state's winner would get all of the Electoral Votes, not a fraction.
So, even with keeping the Electoral College, we can use some tweaks and make it accurate, based on how many people live in a particular area and more representative of what's actually happening with the so-called "popular vote."
Admittedly, though, none of that is the issue right now. The issue is sexism.
I'm the first person to admit it. We got President Barack Obama, at least in part, because of sexism. Obama had one major challenger in the 2008 Democratic primaries - Senator Hillary Clinton. And when he won the nomination, his opponent was John McCain, who was in questionable health at the time, and his running mate was former Alaska governor, Sarah Palin.
While the 2008 result was far closer than 1984, when Geraldine Ferraro ran with Walter Mondale to a landslide defeat, it wasn't close.
As I mentioned above, I have worked for the DNC, speaking to big money donors all over the country. And when I briefly was involved with Hillary's campaign, speaking exclusively to Democrats, mind you, I was taken aback by the number of people who said some variation of "I don't think we're ready for a 'woman president.'"
Reminder. 2016. Liberal minded voters. Not sure about a woman in charge. As tough as that was to hear, it clearly was worse on the conservative side. There are a number of Americans who firmly believe that women should be barred from the military. You can imagine what they think of a female Commander-in-Chief.
Flash ahead four years. Now it's not just sexism, it's racism. Senator Kamala Harris isn't just a woman a Joe Biden heartbeat from the Oval Office, she is a minority woman. And we have not gotten past either sexism or racism in this country - in fact, we haven't properly discussed those issues, even now. And if we haven't even talked about them, we are far from resolving them.
This combination of elements, a fearful population of a possible Madam President, those that are happy with (or are unaffected by) trump's statements and actions, and this almost insatiable need by Republicans not to just have their way, but to be practically punitive with Democrats, has created a nation on the brink of a new kind of civil war.
My points about changing things for future elections may be moot. That's because when trump gets his second term, suddenly, he doesn't have to answer to anybody, not even his base. He will be completely free to do anything he wants, including finding a way to stay in power beyond 2024. After all, things are so much more peaceful when the rabble rousers have nothing to promote.
But I stated that trump's re-election might be a good thing. A great thing, not a good thing. Let me briefly paint that picture.
Any doubt about the dysfunction of the United States is gone. But what to do about it is unclear. If Biden wins, we'll start to head back towards what we think of as "normalcy."
But we have outgrown that normal. The problem is many Americans still don't understand what the complaints are all about. They need trump to destroy government as it is before they finally get it.
So, when trump attempts to dismantle the Constitution, when he exerts his absolute power, when he aligns with foreign dictators and shuns our allies, promotes chaos and divisive thought and when he manipulates every advantage to circumnavigate our laws to stay beyond eight years, and when it will eventually end, and yes, despite all, it will eventually end, we, like the Original Founders, will have to create a new government from the wreckage and the carnage.
Hopefully, this time, we will consider ALL Americans as we build a new form of government, one that protects us from, not promotes, people like trump, and one that serves the people, not just those with wealth and power.