penpusher: (Trump)
Before I explain the above headline, let me explain my credentials.

I am a person who has worked as a fundraiser for such organizations as Planned Parenthood and EMILY's List. I have also fundraised for the Democratic National Committee and participated in both of Barack Obama's presidential runs, first as a volunteer phone banker and organizer in 2008, then as a fundraiser in 2012, who personally raised over four-hundred thousand dollars for the campaign. And finally, I briefly served as part of the fundraising team for Hillary Clinton, as she became the first woman of a major party atop a presidential ticket.

While others may have more expertise than me, I believe I have a unique and accurate perspective on the 2020 election, and I want state this as clearly as I can, with no sarcasm, no humor and no doubt: donald trump will win a second term and return to the White House.

As you might guess, based on my history, I am not pleased about making this statement. But I am stating it now because I don't want another scene that occurred at the Javits Center on the evening of Tuesday November 8, 2016. The shock and the grief of that moment nearly four years ago, with all of Hillary's supporters gathered together was among the most difficult to witness and that has only extended, based on what has occurred in the ensuing administration.

Here, I will make the case to explain why trump's return to DC isn't just likely, it's inevitable, and why you shouldn't be as shocked as Secretary Clinton's team was when it happened two hundred and six weeks ago.

Nothing occurs in a vacuum. Everything turns on whatever the circumstances are. Currently, the president has seemingly beat COVID-19 in just a few days, suggesting that the medical professionals that warned Americans to stay at home, wear masks and social distance were overzealous. It also makes the Democratic Governors who issued tough restrictions for their states appear to be strangling their own economies for no reason.

Additionally, many view COVID as something no one could have done anything about, so any blame that might have been placed on trump is tempered because this wasn't created by him.

Also, there is the small matter of a new Supreme Court justice. The Senate confirmed Amy Coney Barrett, trump's latest SCOTUS pick, as he continues to pack the court with the most conservative judges he can.

Between laying the blame of the economy on state and city level Democrats, and the promise of a Supreme Court that will tighten restrictions on what some perceive as preposterous behavior by liberal thinking Americans, trump is getting a bit of a boost right now in certain circles.

Also, the fact that Stephen Breyer, Bill Clinton's second Supreme Court selection, turned 82 this past summer, means that trump, if returned to the White House, might actually get a fourth seat to fill on the Judicial side. That thought likely has conservatives on Cloud 9 justices.

But we also need to look back, both to weed through the history of what occurred and to digest the basics of how people think to completely understand why trump is about to win again.

The first thing to note is the Electoral College.

A lot of people don't quite get the intricacies of the Electoral College. And many want to dismantle it. I'm of a somewhat different mindset.

Here's how the process generally works. Every state acts as a separate entity. Every voting district in each state counts toward your total in that state. Win just one voting district more than your opponent and you win the state and all of that state's Electoral Votes. The object is to get to 270 Electoral Votes and win.

It used to be counties - or parishes in Louisiana - not "voting districts." But that's because gerrymandering, the process of redrawing the map so one side or other can win areas, has been done by Republican legislators since George W. Bush. With gerrymandering, Republicans get a major boost because they manipulate the lines so more and more areas are set to vote Red. It's an easy fix.

Prior to the 2016 election, I suggested a couple of problems with the Electoral system, putting aside the gerrymandering issue. The first was simply the numbers.

There are six states and the District of Columbia that have three Electoral Votes. Wyoming is the smallest in population - approximately 578,000 residents. Montana has nearly twice the population, at over one million residents, but the same number of electoral votes as Wyoming. That seems odd.

Then, when you compare the vote totals to the larger states, it seems even more wacky. Using Montana's three votes per million residents, not even Wyoming's population count, a state like California would receive 117 Electoral Votes, based on the more than 39 million residents in that state. Currently, California has fifty-five Electoral Votes. So the state counts aren't fair.

But there is an even bigger issue that no one wants to address.

Every state has their allotment of Electoral Votes. And those votes are cast, no matter how many (or few) people voted in the general election. If only fifty percent of the population voted, why are one hundred percent of the Electoral Votes being given? Think about it. Votes are being handed to candidates based on NOTHING. What should be happening is a percentage of the Electoral Votes are awarded, based on the total of ballots cast by the percentage of legal voting age population.

Now, suddenly, we are getting an accurate assessment of what each state thinks. And this has the added benefit of eliminating voter suppression, forever. In this case, you want everyone, including supporters of your political rival to vote, so the state's winner would get all of the Electoral Votes, not a fraction.

So, even with keeping the Electoral College, we can use some tweaks and make it accurate, based on how many people live in a particular area and more representative of what's actually happening with the so-called "popular vote."

Admittedly, though, none of that is the issue right now. The issue is sexism.

I'm the first person to admit it. We got President Barack Obama, at least in part, because of sexism. Obama had one major challenger in the 2008 Democratic primaries - Senator Hillary Clinton. And when he won the nomination, his opponent was John McCain, who was in questionable health at the time, and his running mate was former Alaska governor, Sarah Palin.

While the 2008 result was far closer than 1984, when Geraldine Ferraro ran with Walter Mondale to a landslide defeat, it wasn't close.

As I mentioned above, I have worked for the DNC, speaking to big money donors all over the country. And when I briefly was involved with Hillary's campaign, speaking exclusively to Democrats, mind you, I was taken aback by the number of people who said some variation of "I don't think we're ready for a 'woman president.'"

Reminder. 2016. Liberal minded voters. Not sure about a woman in charge. As tough as that was to hear, it clearly was worse on the conservative side. There are a number of Americans who firmly believe that women should be barred from the military. You can imagine what they think of a female Commander-in-Chief.

Flash ahead four years. Now it's not just sexism, it's racism. Senator Kamala Harris isn't just a woman a Joe Biden heartbeat from the Oval Office, she is a minority woman. And we have not gotten past either sexism or racism in this country - in fact, we haven't properly discussed those issues, even now. And if we haven't even talked about them, we are far from resolving them.

This combination of elements, a fearful population of a possible Madam President, those that are happy with (or are unaffected by) trump's statements and actions, and this almost insatiable need by Republicans not to just have their way, but to be practically punitive with Democrats, has created a nation on the brink of a new kind of civil war.

My points about changing things for future elections may be moot. That's because when trump gets his second term, suddenly, he doesn't have to answer to anybody, not even his base. He will be completely free to do anything he wants, including finding a way to stay in power beyond 2024. After all, things are so much more peaceful when the rabble rousers have nothing to promote.

But I stated that trump's re-election might be a good thing. A great thing, not a good thing. Let me briefly paint that picture.

Any doubt about the dysfunction of the United States is gone. But what to do about it is unclear. If Biden wins, we'll start to head back towards what we think of as "normalcy."

But we have outgrown that normal. The problem is many Americans still don't understand what the complaints are all about. They need trump to destroy government as it is before they finally get it.

So, when trump attempts to dismantle the Constitution, when he exerts his absolute power, when he aligns with foreign dictators and shuns our allies, promotes chaos and divisive thought and when he manipulates every advantage to circumnavigate our laws to stay beyond eight years, and when it will eventually end, and yes, despite all, it will eventually end, we, like the Original Founders, will have to create a new government from the wreckage and the carnage.

Hopefully, this time, we will consider ALL Americans as we build a new form of government, one that protects us from, not promotes, people like trump, and one that serves the people, not just those with wealth and power.
penpusher: (DemReps)
I know that a lot of elements involved in the realm of politics are confusing, arcane, even designed to be misunderstood by the general public. But can we at least get this one basic fact right:

An affiliate of a political party's actions vis a vis sexual misconduct is not a "partisan" issue. Just because a man has acted in a way that is sexually abusive toward someone else that action is, in no way, reflective of a political party.

There are enough examples on both sides of the aisle to support this concept. So, I hope that we can at least agree on that. We can run down the names if you want, but we can easily do that. And the point that needs making is these are just the things we know. There are abuses that have been buried for ten, twenty, thirty years that are just beginning to come to light. Assuredly, as with all the previous cases, those that have committed these acts will not all be from one political party.

But by making it into an accusatory element that somehow reflects on the politics of one party or the other does two negative things. First, it turns the issue into something that it is not. This isn't about being a Democrat or a Republican. This is a method of power and abuse that these men, not just in politics, but as we have seen, in Hollywood, in big business, in small business, in colleges and universities and even in high schools, have used to have their way with other people who have been in positions of weakness against someone who had an image of an upstanding citizen who achieved success for the general public.

But it also diminishes the issue that we need to examine, which is how our society permits men to act in ways that are more related to our caveman ancestors than to persons from a modern day society.

The "Boys with be boys" excuse still gets used and that not only allowed "boys" (aka adult men), to act in this way, it made women and girls feel there was nothing that could be done! This is just reality so you better just lie back and enjoy it.

And really, that was the system of control, tolerance, and method of oppression that occurred for centuries. Women were not seen as equals to men, so what they said, what they thought, how they acted, likewise were not treated equally.

Here's the issue that needs to be examined. Our society has helped to perpetrate this system. In many ways, it's like racism. The oppressed group is diminished, treated like an "other," is frequently assumed to have "participated" in some way which allowed this to happen, and is questioned as if they are the perpetrator, not the victim.

And the problem we see, when we have a system that functions like that is that more and more men will want to participate in it. It becomes an expectation, an opportunity, a right. I can do it because every man in every generation before me did it.

That brings me to the crucial element that we must keep in mind. And the problem is the same for sexism and racism if we want to actually dismantle these cruel aspects of our society.

We need to have closure for victims, and for that, at the very least, apologies should be forthcoming from those that have acted inappropriately, or criminally, no matter if the Statute of Limitations has expired (because, after all, the victims have lived with these actions all this while). But to make the changes in our society that need to happen to stop it, to close the door on this behavior in the future, requires us to dismantle the elements that have permitted it, and that is a different element.

In that sense, we have to look less at individual acts, specifically because this is a macro problem that needs to be resolved. It involves teaching small boys about how to behave, what is appropriate, why certain actions should never be done to someone else without asking. It's about teaching children that if you were physically abused by someone, you need to say so and that adults will believe you. We need to begin this immediately because the longer we wait, the more abusers can still be created.

Ultimately, there is a cultural issue here. These guys may not have been taught that they have permission to do what they did, but they learned it by osmosis, based on how our societal norms treated others who acted the same way. And that's where the main focus needs to be if we are to bring an end to these issues. In no way does this absolve anyone who did anything before, but the most important idea we need to collectively focus on is keeping it from happening again to anyone. That means all of us need to start changing our behaviors for the sake of all of us.
penpusher: (Trump)
For a moment, let’s forget everything we know (and let’s definitely forget everything we DON’T know) about the 2016 United States Presidential Election. Let’s forget the people chosen to be cabinet members of this administration. Let’s forget the inane and sometimes seriously flawed tweets, the blatant attacks against the press, the awkward meetings with heads of state that are our allies, the inexplicable meetings with heads of state that are our adversaries, the policies that clearly are not in the spirit of our country. Let’s forget the maxims and slogans that are meaningless, let’s not think about the continual weekends away from DC, the lack of knowledge of basic geography, basic diplomacy, basic government policy, or the revolving door of White House staffers that is spinning like a merry-go-round powered by a warp drive engine. Forget. It. All.

We are left with Number Forty-Five. And without all of the negative banter, the attempts to control everything around him, the continual contradictory statements, the constant demands for loyalty, we can now clearly see one fact that is crystal clear:

Donald J. Trump is a terrible president.

Now, I know what you’re thinking, if you’re a supporter of Trump. You’re thinking, this is another “libtard,” “sore loser” commentary coming from a “snowflake” about how you “can’t get over” the fact that he “beat” Hillary and you just won’t shut up and let him “run the country” the way he wants. You’re also probably thinking that “this kind of commentary” is “dividing the country” and that we “can’t move forward” if you aren’t willing to accept “President Trump” for what he is, the guy who is going to “Make America Great Again.”

But, here’s the crux of the issue when we are talking about Trump’s presidency to date. During the election, people are generally divided along party lines: Democrats and Republicans mostly, though certainly Libertarians and Independents were heard from as well. However, when the election is over, the winner must become President of the United States, not President of the People Who Voted For Him.

The problem isn’t that Liberals are “cry babies,” it’s that the President has chosen to ignore anyone who doesn’t agree with his policies and rhetoric. In other words, he is still playing to his base and ignoring everybody who isn’t already in his camp.

Donald Trump candidly admitted that he really didn’t know or understand what being President was all about before he started to run for the office. That’s usually a dangerous indicator, especially in a job that has so many moving parts and is so very important for both the image of our country with the rest of the world (as the most visible representation of the nation, POTUS is the filter through which the rest of the citizenry is viewed by people in other locales). But, it’s also a problem for those that live here. The policies, the concepts, the elements of knowing what to do are crucial in maintaining a sense of control, of steadiness, of caring, of expertise.

The issue is Trump has never stopped being the Republican Nominee. Everything he has planned, everything he has said, everything he has done was to the liking of the GOP, and nothing of any kind to even attempt to reach out to the Democrats, who, despite all of the conservative talk suggesting otherwise, are still intelligent minded citizens of this country.

Again, this is a demonstration of how little Mr. Trump knows about how government works. Those people that didn’t vote for him are not expected to suddenly be supportive of everything the president says and does, just because he took the oath of office. It is up to him to reach out in word and deed and act like he cares about the entirety of the country.

That’s why there are constant outcries from the liberal side of things over just about everything Trump is doing. When we say “He’s Not My President,” that’s really because of what the man, himself, is saying or trying to accomplish. The phrase, more accurately stated, is “He’s Not BEING My President.”

Every candidate has to pivot, at least a little bit, toward the center when they become the president, if they intend to include all citizens. And the president really must include all citizens if that person intends to govern properly. There is no way around it. President Obama did not dismantle the NRA or hand out Reparations to African American families, as many conservative commenters all over the internet were anxious about during his tenure in office. In fact, President Obama had a rather moderate term, not doing anything so far left it would create some angered response from conservatives. But then again, for most of Obama’s term, he had a Republican Congress to deal with, and they were not about to give him any bills that he actually wanted to sign.

When you look at everything that Donald Trump wants to do, it slams Democrats/Liberals in a way that makes them seem like he views them as “the enemy.” While that might delight everyone who voted GOP, who are still pushing the partisan agenda, who are still trying to trash and bash Hillary, that does not endear him to the rest of the nation who are feeling as if this is turning into a game of “Keep Away.” And the fact that this seems like it’s being treated like a game itself is problematic.

Worse yet, The Donald was partially responsible for the atmosphere that we are currently in: as his suggestion that Barack Obama perhaps was not born on United States soil meant that maybe he should not be the president at all, and that maybe all of the bills he signed into law should be considered void. With his constant comments and calls for President Obama’s Birth Certificate, Trump definitely helped to divide the nation and to became the darling of conservative commentators around the country, eventually leading to his candidacy, the Anti-Obama crusader.

And conservative commentators also make a mint from tapping into a portion of the population all too eager to hear and believe what they are saying. People using political speak for personal gain don’t understand how that creates a rift in the country because they remain unaffected. They won’t be harmed by the policies this administration pushes forward, so to them, it’s that previously referred to game, a chance to whip up the ire of their viewers or listeners for clickbait on websites or commercial sponsors on TV or radio programming. Ka-ching.

During President Obama’s time in office, we know that a small group of Republicans broke off and formed what they called the “Tea Party,” an offshoot of the GOP that was determined to undermine President Obama at every possible opportunity. And this group grew and blossomed, just like a weed, feeding off of other disgruntled conservatives, spouting negative commentary and just like Breitbart, which also began as a website around that same time, wanted to do as much as they could to characterize Obama as being a negative influence on the country and to rally support for all things conservative.

When Donald Trump took the oath of office, it was time for The Closer to take over. Just one problem: being POTUS is not the same as running a corporation. You don’t get to boss everyone around and do things your own way. You don’t get to act unilaterally. And as Trump himself should have known, just from his own constant tweets about Barack Obama, you don’t get to avoid criticism from the people who do not agree with your policies and decisions.

But all of these things are being used as reasons why he hasn’t accomplished more of his agenda, this though he has a friendly Congress, a conservative Supreme Court and pens aplenty to sign his Executive Orders.

Still, Trump remains unapologetic in his complete and utter disregard for anyone that was not a supporter of his during the election and seems intent on working exclusively for those that were. Certainly, his appointment to the Supreme Court, Neil Gorsuch, is a blatant example of that. Where Barack Obama nominated a slightly right leaning judge, Merrick Garland, a person most Republicans suggested would be a good or at least reasonable selection to their liking, Trump’s appointment was as far right as possible, again, supporting his base and thumbing his nose at the left.

The hate is the element that overwhelms – hate of the party that does something different from what you like. While conservatives may be inconvenienced by policies introduced by liberals, more taxes, programs that benefit other groups, liberals are often threatened directly by policies introduced by conservatives: defunding Planned Parenthood, repealing laws permitting gay people to marry as a couple of examples that may do legitimate harm to people, either through economics or the appearance of segmenting our country into groups that deserve fair treatment and others who do not.

Ultimately, the President of the United States is there to set a tone, to frame some parameters. POTUS helps to point out what is important, what we should be thinking about. The president is like a scoutmaster, constantly showing us what we need to do, and what we need to avoid. Unless he's so self-interested that you don't know what that is.

If there is any positive from Trump’s presidency, it’s that people are starting to come together and organize. Indivisible, a group created specifically to fight against the policies and agendas that Trump has been pushing has been slowly gathering support since the election and now numbers nearly six thousand separate affiliate organizations across the country. Their website is chock full of information about contacting local representatives, how to set up peaceful protests and has information about events, news about successes achieved through these grass roots efforts and updates you with info about bills up for debate that can have an impact on your local legislatures among a very extensive list of useful facts. It is worth a bookmark.

The fact is, politicians are here to work for us, not the other way around. And they are here to work for ALL of us, not just the ones with the big bank accounts or the ones that already agree with the people elected. It is up to us, the constituents, to hold their feet to the fire and make sure they do what we want, because that is their role. And if they don’t perform their role properly, it is up to us, the constituents, to vote them out of office, because that is our role.

The 2018 Midterm elections are fifteen months away.

//

This thinkpost was written for LJ Idol using the prompt: Be patient and tough; someday this pain will be useful to you
penpusher: (Trump)
Steve Scalise Among 4 Shot at Baseball Field; Suspect Is Dead - The New York Times Wednesday June 14, 2017

Partisan politics commentary where people of a differing political stance have chosen to call each other “selfish,” “stupid,” “insane” or worse. Much worse. It's difficult not to see the above event as possibly a result of such responses. And it's something we have to address.

If we are to understand where the United States is, politically, we have to go back in time and examine where we were. Let’s turn back the clock and go for a trip to a previous USA, all the way back to the mid twentieth century!

The world of politics during the Eisenhower era... )
penpusher: (Flag)
Just about nine months ago, I wrote a thinkpost called Why "President Trump" Is NOT As Far-Fetched As You Think", which outlined the basics of why a nonsensical candidate who had no political experience of any kind could wind up being the Republican Nominee for President during this election cycle.

At the time I wrote that piece... )
penpusher: (Flag)
Though I have taken a step away from politics, at least as far as my job is concerned, the landscape of what is being seen on the current scene compels me to examine where we currently stand. Obviously, the 2000 Pound Gorilla in the room is Donald Trump.

A lot of people I know believe this Trump candidacy is going to eventually run out of gas, will shrivel up and blow away, will not survive any serious scrutiny and will vanish as an amusing sketch from a season of Saturday Night Live that wasn't very good.

I'm not of that group. In fact, I think Trump could win the nomination, and might prove to be a formidable candidate against whomever the Democrats put up.

Here's why... )

Mario Cuomo

Jan. 2nd, 2015 01:57 am
penpusher: (Democrats)
If 2015 is just going to be a litany of names of people I like who are leaving the planet, I'll just start watching "Back to the Future Part II" on a loop for the rest of the year.

But Mario Cuomo is a name that is crucial and caring, not just in New York politics but also on the national scene. He was a three term governor of New York, yes. And that was important. But he was also a visionary, a forward thinker, a caring politician.

Personally, I think if Cuomo doesn't give... )

Job Stuff

Dec. 24th, 2013 01:29 pm
penpusher: (Democrats)
I haven't said much about my job recently. But if you're reading, you already know that, so why am I saying it? Oh yeah. Segue into talking about my job.

I am having some seriously ambivalent feelings about work lately. There are a lot of reasons for that, none of them particularly political, because I'm fully on board with that element of it all. But there are a lot of things happening all at once and I'm not feeling great about aspects of it, in general.

Some of this stuff... )

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